‘I am terrible with predictions and I won’t hesitate to eat my words. But I hope I don’t have to!’
--Me, a couple of posts earlier….
--Me, a couple of posts earlier….
The results are out and I guess I had to eat my words… but mind you... only in one case!
Tamil Nadu
My Prediction: Amma retaining power.
Outcome: Dark shades are back! Mr. Karunanidhi had some surprises in store for me. This is one place where my political brain got it all wrong. It was indeed the DMK-led Democratic Progressive Alliance that romped home winning 161 out of 234 seats, thus gaining a clear majority. However, unlike AIADMK last time, DMK will be at the mercy of the Congress Party as despite being the single largest party, it fell way short (93) of the figures required for the majority (118). So, while DMK can play its cards at the Centre, Congress can do the same in Tamil Nadu. Both parties will have to accommodate and appease each other.
CM: Who else, but the man who sleeps with his shades on—M Karunanidhi.
But in the other four states, I seem to have got it reasonably right.
Kerala
My Prediction: Left Democratic Front (LDF) coming to power.
Outcome: While the scoreline might suggest that it was an easy ride for the Left with victory in 95 seats out of 140, it (scoreline) took many poll analysts by surprise. Not many believed that UDF (United Democratic Front) will get more than 30 seats. The tally of 43 seats therefore, wasn’t too bad a performance. It’s hightime that Karunakaran starts thinking of hanging his political boots. His newly formed party could win just a solitary seat as his own son Muraleedharan faced his consecutive election loss! BJP, as expected, still hasn’t opened its account.
CM: There are two candidates for the CM’s post here—Achuthananthan and Palloli Mohammadkutty. Penarai Vijayan, who I thought had a chance, doesn’t seem to figure in the scheme of things.
Off the topic: Karunakaran’s newly formed party is called Democratic Indira Congress followed by the initial of his name in the brackets, which when converted into an abbreviated form will read DIC(K)… Ahem… I wont comment any more on that.
West Bengal
My Prediction: Left Front
Outcome: Buddha smiles yet again!!! As if anyone had any doubts about that! The only question at West Bengal (which will soon start to read as Left Bengal) was the margin of victory. I will just let the numbers speak for itself. The Left Front garnered 231 out of 294 seats. Here, the CPM alone can form the next government winning 173 seats, comfortably ahead of the required majority of 148. With these kind of numbers, there was little Left for others like the Trinamool Congress and the Congress.
CM: Who else… Buddha is smiling again, as I said…. Bhattacharjee!
Assam
My Prediction: Congress may retain power but will find it difficult to gain numbers to form the majority.
Outcome: Out of the 126 seats, the Congress along with a couple of independents have won 54 falling short of the majority by 10 seats. Now as I’d predicted, the situation here gets interesting! This is one state where the ‘significant others’ will play a major role. There are 20 independents in the ‘Other’ category and these are bound to the ‘king-makers’ in the state. Besides the ‘Others’, the newly formed Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF), that won 8 seats, will have a say in the formation of the next government. One reason why the Congress managed to scrape despite the anti-incumbecy that was supposed to work against them, was Prafulla Kumar Mahanta’s faction of Asom Gana Parishad (Progressive) [AGP(P)] and the BJP digging into the ‘original’ AGP’s votebank. It is also said that AUDF ate up a lot of Congress’ votes. While Congress might just about manage to form the new government, the picture is still not clear as to who will be the next CM. It is very likely that Tarun Gogoi might well be the man, again.
Pondicherry
My Prediction: Congress will complete a hat-trick.
Outcome: The Congress-led DPA won 21 out of 30 seats. But the Congress will have to cling on to its partner DMK to remain in power. As I had predicted, a few rebel candidates proved to be a bane for the DPA, yet it wasn’t enough to keep them out of power. AIADMK could garner just six seats completing a bad phase of elections for Amma.
CM: R Rangaswamy
Meanwhile, at the Rae Barelli re-elections to the Lok Sabha, Mamma Gandhi won by a whooping four lakh votes! All the other candidates, excepting one, lost their election deposits. This really begs the question—why were this election held in the first place when the result was a foregone conclusion. Just another way to spend (read waste) people’s money, I suppose!
Off the topic: Karunakaran’s newly formed party is called Democratic Indira Congress followed by the initial of his name in the brackets, which when converted into an abbreviated form will read DIC(K)… Ahem… I wont comment any more on that.
West Bengal
My Prediction: Left Front
Outcome: Buddha smiles yet again!!! As if anyone had any doubts about that! The only question at West Bengal (which will soon start to read as Left Bengal) was the margin of victory. I will just let the numbers speak for itself. The Left Front garnered 231 out of 294 seats. Here, the CPM alone can form the next government winning 173 seats, comfortably ahead of the required majority of 148. With these kind of numbers, there was little Left for others like the Trinamool Congress and the Congress.
CM: Who else… Buddha is smiling again, as I said…. Bhattacharjee!
Assam
My Prediction: Congress may retain power but will find it difficult to gain numbers to form the majority.
Outcome: Out of the 126 seats, the Congress along with a couple of independents have won 54 falling short of the majority by 10 seats. Now as I’d predicted, the situation here gets interesting! This is one state where the ‘significant others’ will play a major role. There are 20 independents in the ‘Other’ category and these are bound to the ‘king-makers’ in the state. Besides the ‘Others’, the newly formed Assam United Democratic Front (AUDF), that won 8 seats, will have a say in the formation of the next government. One reason why the Congress managed to scrape despite the anti-incumbecy that was supposed to work against them, was Prafulla Kumar Mahanta’s faction of Asom Gana Parishad (Progressive) [AGP(P)] and the BJP digging into the ‘original’ AGP’s votebank. It is also said that AUDF ate up a lot of Congress’ votes. While Congress might just about manage to form the new government, the picture is still not clear as to who will be the next CM. It is very likely that Tarun Gogoi might well be the man, again.
Pondicherry
My Prediction: Congress will complete a hat-trick.
Outcome: The Congress-led DPA won 21 out of 30 seats. But the Congress will have to cling on to its partner DMK to remain in power. As I had predicted, a few rebel candidates proved to be a bane for the DPA, yet it wasn’t enough to keep them out of power. AIADMK could garner just six seats completing a bad phase of elections for Amma.
CM: R Rangaswamy
Meanwhile, at the Rae Barelli re-elections to the Lok Sabha, Mamma Gandhi won by a whooping four lakh votes! All the other candidates, excepting one, lost their election deposits. This really begs the question—why were this election held in the first place when the result was a foregone conclusion. Just another way to spend (read waste) people’s money, I suppose!
So, there you go... since we are playing with numbers... an 80% success rate in my predictions ain't too bad, heh? Especially when it concerns Indian politics where anything can happen any time!!
Note: All the numbers mentioned in this post are during the time of going to blog and can vary with little or no difference.
Note: All the numbers mentioned in this post are during the time of going to blog and can vary with little or no difference.
2 comments:
What did I tell you mate? It had to be DMK this time...because the last time it was Amma...they take it turn by turn. They don't like to lose the rhythm! LOL!
I accept defeat!!! (like Amma)... Lol...
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