‘The assembly elections are in full swing across four states and a union territory.’ ‘Full swing’ is a phrase that is oft repeated in India along with what has become its twin word—‘elections’.
I really have a great deal of admiration for the political analysts and election statisticians, not to miss out the Election Commission of India, for the way they manage to keep themselves updated every time an election is held in India, for ‘every time’ in Indian electoral scenario actually reads ‘always’.
News channels, this time around have kept a low profile as far as opinion polls and exit polls are concerned. So, while they have gone ahead with their polling, they have also made sure that they play it safe by addressing that ‘these are not the actual results’. No channel would want to find themselves in a similar situation as that of General Elections 2004 where each and every channel predicted ‘iNDiA Shining’. Before I move on further, let me explain the difference between an ‘Opinion Poll’ and an ‘Exit Poll’. A poll that is taken amongst the public before they have cast their vote is an opinion poll while an exit poll is the opinion taken from a sample of voters as they leave after casting their vote.
I haven’t taken any such polls, but I will jump the gun and predict as to who will form the next government in each of the five states.
Kerala: It could have been a land-slide win for the Left Democratic Front taking into account the strong anti-incumbency factor against Ommen Chandy’s United Democratic Front, led by the Congress, but for the infighting within the CPI (M) and also the confusion as to who will be their Chief-Ministerial candidate. Also, the old man K Karunakaran supporting the UDF is an added advantage for the UDF. Love him or hate him, he still has a huge say in Kerala politics. But it will still be the LDF coming out to form the next government.
Chief Minister? Ahem… I’d say Penarai Vijayan
Assam: The anti-incumbency factor could again have been at play against the Tarun Gogoi-led Congress government. But Asom Gana Parishad and BJP deciding to fight it out all alone means Congress is back in the fray to regain power. The anti-incumbency votes will now be divided amongst two. However, A post-election alliance seems distinctly possible. However, I do feel Prafulla Kumar Mahanta will have to wait for some more time. Congress may retain power but will find it difficult to gain numbers to form the majority.
Chief Minister? Tarun Gogoi
West Bengal: Left Front. I don’t think I need to say more.
Chief Minister? Mr. Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee again!
Tamil Nadu: This is supposed to be another close race, but Amma shall rise again! Apparently, the AIADMK government has done commendable job post the general-election 2004 debacle when they couldn’t win a single seat. Now, even Vaiko, the guy who was dragged to jail in the darkest hour by Jayalalitha’s police force is with Amma. The DMK led Democratic Progressive Alliance might give AIADMK a good fight, but the latter will emerge to form the government again!
Chief Minister? J Jayalalitha
Pondicherry: The Congress is trying to complete a hat-trick here and might well succeed in doing so. The alliance with DMK is an added advantage along with the absence of anti-incumbency factor. A few rebel candidates might however disturb the Congress’ equation.
Chief Minister? N. Rangaswamy
So, I have spoken! I am terrible with predictions and I won’t hesitate to eat my words. But I hope I don’t have to!
I really have a great deal of admiration for the political analysts and election statisticians, not to miss out the Election Commission of India, for the way they manage to keep themselves updated every time an election is held in India, for ‘every time’ in Indian electoral scenario actually reads ‘always’.
News channels, this time around have kept a low profile as far as opinion polls and exit polls are concerned. So, while they have gone ahead with their polling, they have also made sure that they play it safe by addressing that ‘these are not the actual results’. No channel would want to find themselves in a similar situation as that of General Elections 2004 where each and every channel predicted ‘iNDiA Shining’. Before I move on further, let me explain the difference between an ‘Opinion Poll’ and an ‘Exit Poll’. A poll that is taken amongst the public before they have cast their vote is an opinion poll while an exit poll is the opinion taken from a sample of voters as they leave after casting their vote.
I haven’t taken any such polls, but I will jump the gun and predict as to who will form the next government in each of the five states.
Kerala: It could have been a land-slide win for the Left Democratic Front taking into account the strong anti-incumbency factor against Ommen Chandy’s United Democratic Front, led by the Congress, but for the infighting within the CPI (M) and also the confusion as to who will be their Chief-Ministerial candidate. Also, the old man K Karunakaran supporting the UDF is an added advantage for the UDF. Love him or hate him, he still has a huge say in Kerala politics. But it will still be the LDF coming out to form the next government.
Chief Minister? Ahem… I’d say Penarai Vijayan
Assam: The anti-incumbency factor could again have been at play against the Tarun Gogoi-led Congress government. But Asom Gana Parishad and BJP deciding to fight it out all alone means Congress is back in the fray to regain power. The anti-incumbency votes will now be divided amongst two. However, A post-election alliance seems distinctly possible. However, I do feel Prafulla Kumar Mahanta will have to wait for some more time. Congress may retain power but will find it difficult to gain numbers to form the majority.
Chief Minister? Tarun Gogoi
West Bengal: Left Front. I don’t think I need to say more.
Chief Minister? Mr. Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee again!
Tamil Nadu: This is supposed to be another close race, but Amma shall rise again! Apparently, the AIADMK government has done commendable job post the general-election 2004 debacle when they couldn’t win a single seat. Now, even Vaiko, the guy who was dragged to jail in the darkest hour by Jayalalitha’s police force is with Amma. The DMK led Democratic Progressive Alliance might give AIADMK a good fight, but the latter will emerge to form the government again!
Chief Minister? J Jayalalitha
Pondicherry: The Congress is trying to complete a hat-trick here and might well succeed in doing so. The alliance with DMK is an added advantage along with the absence of anti-incumbency factor. A few rebel candidates might however disturb the Congress’ equation.
Chief Minister? N. Rangaswamy
So, I have spoken! I am terrible with predictions and I won’t hesitate to eat my words. But I hope I don’t have to!
2 comments:
Rice all the way
By the second week of March, it appeared as if AIADMK was going to win by a comfortable margin, but now, at the end of April with 10 days to go for the elections, the writing is on the wall. DMK is going to come back to power and ADMK bag about 50 seats. The reasons
1. Karthik and his forward Bloc are not going to win any seat, but will garner 3000 to 7000 votes in each consistuency and most importantly 100 % of Forward Bloc’s votes are going to come from AIADMK
2. Vaiko’s vote bank included two groups. One Telugu speaking people and a sizeable propotion of that is going to vote for Vijayakanth now. The second group of Vaiko’s vote bank was people who voted against ADMK as well as DMK. They are now going to vote to Vijayakanth
3. When DMK announced Rice at 2 rupees a kilo, ADMK and MDMK were ridiculing that and told that it is impossible. But after 10 days, ADMK announces that they will give 10 kilos free. This is a single factor that is responsible for the MOOD SWING Over the past 2 weeks
4. In the end result, ADMK is going to win in the northern parts and DMK is going to have a landslide victory in the southern districts (considered a ADMK stronghold)
Well, since you are from TN, you mite know the situation there better... these are just my wild predictions... and mind u, they more often than not go wrong... so...
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